Tel. +63 2 3793569 | manila@admiralmarkets.com

Market Snapshot 12.09.08

Market Snapshot 12.09.08

USD

Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Advance retail sales -Aug- (0.1%), US Retail sales less autos -Aug- (-0.2%), US PPI -YoY-MoM- (10.2% - -0.5%), US PPI Ex-food and energy -YoY-MoM- (3.7% - 0.2%), University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Sep- (63.9) and US Business inventories -July- (0.5%).

2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Trade balance -July- (-$62.2B), US Import price index -MoM- (-3.7%) and US Initial jobless claims -Sep6- (445k).

3.USD fell against the euro today as economists said before reports that sales at US retailers excluding car dealers probably dropped in August for the first time in 6 months as Americans retrenched in the face of mounting job losses and tax rebates effect fades.

4.USD rose to the highest level in a year against the euro yesterday on signs Europe and Japan growth is slowing, while exports are supporting the US growth as importers abroad are taking advantages over the weaker dollar.

5.The dollar remains strong against the euro yesterday as a report showed  the US trade deficit widened more than forecast in July because of surging energy prices that have since retreated and economists said that they expects significant improvement in the trade deficit over the next few months.

On the upside:
•Buying interest on speculation Euro-zone economy may slip into recession.

On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US job markets/economy will worsen.


To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases. (Important)
•Fed members outlook and statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Major financial companies' earnings report.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)


Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF
-Possible main pairs are: – GBP/USD - EUR/USD  – USD/JPY -

-According to 12.20GMT price-           


JPY

Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan GDP Annualized -2ndQ- (-3.0%) and Japan Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (2.4% - 1.3%).

2.JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and Asia rose on speculation Lehman Brothers Holdings will find a buyer, while US index futures fell.

3.JPY remains weak today as reports showed Japan's economy shrank 3% last quarter, the steepest contraction since 2001, as companies and households cut spending and exports fell.
 
4.JPY strengthened against most currencies yesterday amid US stocks advanced as transportation companies rallied on lower oil prices, while banking shares staged a comeback in the late trading session on speculation Lehman Brothers Holdings will be bought.

5.JPY remains strong against most currencies yesterday as investors speculates global economy will slow and traders will pare carry trades.

On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•European markets tumbles on weaker growth outlook.

On the downside:
•Speculation that Japan's economy may deteriorates further.


To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•News related to major institution.
•US Indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate fiscal reports.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.


Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY  – GBP/JPY – CAD/JPY
-Possible main pairs are: - USD/JPY – CAD/JPY

-According to 12.10GMT price-
 

EUR

Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- BOF Business sentiment -Aug- (94), France CPI -YoY-MoM- (3.2% - 0.0%), France CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (3.5% - -0.1%), Italy Industrial production -MoM- (-1.1%), Euro-zone Employment -QoQ-- (0.2%) and Euro-zone Industrial production -MoM- (-0.3%).

2.EUR rose against the dollar today amid reports showed European industrial production fell 0.3%, more than economists forecast and payrolls grew at the slowest pace in almost two years. Italian industrial production fell 1.1% in July, more than expected as economic growth stalled and high oil prices boosted costs and sapped consumer spending.

3.EUR fell against the dollar yesterday amid a report showed US trade deficit widened more than forecast in July because of surging oil prices that have since retreated and economists said that they expects significant improvement in the trade deficit over the next few months when the trade data reflects the retreated oil price.

4.EUR remains weak against the dollar yesterday amid ECB said inflation remains its primary concern even after oil prices dropped and the economy contracted and reports showed France payrolls fell for the first time in more than 4 years, declining by 0.2%, twice as many jobs as initially reported.

On the upside:
•Some recovery after recent decline.

On the downside:
•Weaker outlook on Euro-zone economic growth.
•Easing inflation in the region.


To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.


Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: - EUR/USD – EUR/GBP - EUR/CAD
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – (Light)
-Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/CAD

-According to 12.20GMT price-


Crude oil

Brief:
1.Crude oil rebounds from a 5 months low today as the dollar fell against the euro and Hurricane Ike headed toward the Texas coast, shutting almost all Gulf of Mexico oil production as it passes.

2.Analysts said crude oil may fall next week after Hurricane Ike makes landfall, with refineries and production platforms along the Texas coast resume operation after Hurricane Ike passes.

3.Crude oil fell yesterday, to the lowest close in 5 months, but gasoline advanced as Hurricane Ike headed across the Gulf of Mexico for refineries along the Texas coast.

4.Crude oil fell yesterday amid Hurricane Ike forecast path forced Exxon Mobil's to shut its Baytown refinery, while Valero Energy is shutting its Houston and Texas City, refineries.

5.Crude oil remains weak yesterday as the dollar rose to a 1 year high against the euro and US stock markets rallied, reducing commodities appeal as a hedge.

On the upside:
•Atlantic ocean hurricanes activities.
•Production cut threat.
•Production disruption threat/speculation.

On the downside:
•Stronger/Stabilizing dollar.


To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Hurricane Ike.
•USD movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities and weather report. (Sensitive)
•US indexes movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.


Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long”
Crude oil around low $101 and mid $101 (Today's economic releases, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-

-According to 12.20GMT price-


Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)


Present (12.20PM) – 16PM GMT:

•USD rises on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets rises on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.

16PM – 18PM GMT:

•USD remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.  (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.  (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY remains or slightly weakens  following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.

18PM – 22PM GMT:

•USD remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•Crude oil rises by late trading session.

Loh Chang Yuen,

Junior Strategist

All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
 

Admiral Markets Philippines

Address: 1014 Ayala Tower One and Exchange Plaza, Ayala Avenue, Makati City, Philippines 1226

Tel.: +632 919 0159, +632 379 3560
Fax.: +632 919 0159 ext 88
E-mail: manila@admiralmarkets.com